Briefing: Climate is a Winning Issue for Democrats in 2024
Rising temperatures, wildfires, extreme weather, and more have made climate change a personal, kitchen table issue for voters.
50% of all voters have already felt climate change impacts (Hart, 9/23).
61% of voters believe weather events like heat waves are caused by climate change (Hart).
Climate is key for turnout and voting decisions by young voters.
85% of young voters can be moved to vote based on climate issues (CIRCLE/Tufts, 11/23).
72% of young voters who care about climate are “extremely likely” to vote in 2024, compared to 57% of youth overall (Circle/Tufts).
For 58% of young voters, climate change is a “very important” issue (Hart).
Climate is important for many older voters 65+
In a recent 18-state study by Environmental Voter Project:
65+ are the second largest group of climate voters: 1 in 6 see climate as a #1 priority.
Voters 65+ were more likely than 35-49 or 50-64-year-olds to list climate/environment as their top issue in all 18 states studied.
Significant proportions of older voters rank climate as a top priority in key battleground states including Arizona (18.0%), Pennsylvania (17.3%), and Nevada (13.6%).
In Arizona and Pennsylvania, older climate voters are nearly 5% of the entire electorate.
The highest support for strong climate policies for ages 65+ is among Black (80%+), AAPI (75%+), Hispanic (66%+), and white women voters (Benegal et al, IOPScience, 11/22).
Americans want ambitious climate action: Pres. Biden’s IRA measures, increasing clean energy, reducing pollution and fossil fuels, and lowering energy costs are winning issues.
Voters show strong support for key individual measures of President Biden's IRA (70-80%+) but 40% have heard “nothing at all” about it (Yale). This is an opportunity for Democrats.
2 in 3 Americans want the U.S. to take ambitious climate action, even if other countries don’t. Notably, this support holds true across both party lines and age groups, with support from 91% of Democrats, 74% of Independents, 63% of Republicans; 79% of voters under 45, and 76% of voters over 45 (Data for Progress, 11/23).
Voters want increased clean energy (70%) and reduced use of fossil fuels (65%). (Hart) and care most about reducing harmful pollution, lowering energy costs, and increasing energy independence (Data for Progress, 10/23).
Support for the clean energy transition is strong across the electorate. Significant majorities of key groups such as Black, Latino, AAPI, and young voters want a faster transition (Hart).
5 million+ Native American voters can swing elections in AK, AZ, MI, NV, WI, and more - and are disproportionately supportive of strong climate measures in nearly every state.
Climate is important for voters for both top-of-the-ticket and down-ballot decisions.
Elected leaders at all levels are seen as highly responsible for addressing climate change, including state and local lawmakers (80%), Congress (81%), and president (74%) (DFP, 10/23).
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